The government estimated a short-term annual revenue loss of ₹48,000 crore. With total GST collections at ₹10.6 lakh crore in the last fiscal, the impact looks small.

Crisil explained that moving items out of the 12% slab will not dent revenue significantly. In fiscal 2024, about 70–75% of GST revenue came from the 18% slab, while 5–6% came from the 12% slab.

Taxes on fast-growing services like mobile tariffs remain unchanged. New services such as e-commerce delivery are taxed at 18%, which will add revenue. Rates for premium goods like high-value clothing and two-wheelers have been raised, protecting collections from affluent consumers.

Crisil added that simplifying GST from four to two slabs could widen the tax base. Combined with low inflation, easing borrowing costs, and income-tax relief, consumption may rise.

The Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana and healthy agriculture will also support demand, helping GST revenue stay resilient in the medium term.

The new GST rates will take effect on September 22, and their full impact will emerge later this fiscal.

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