This election saw the lowest number of Yadav MLAs since the Mandal era. Only 28 Yadavs entered the Assembly, compared to 55 earlier. Muslim representation also dropped sharply, with only 11 MLAs winning. Many Muslims supported AIMIM, which won five seats, more than RJD and Congress.

Other communities voted in a more united way. Strong counter-polarisation reduced the impact of the MY (Muslim-Yadav) formula. This trend was similar to Haryana, where the Jat vote bank could not stop BJP’s rise.

Most winning MLAs belong to extremely backward classes, while Rajputs gained among upper castes. Parties that relied on Muslims and Yadavs now face serious challenges.

Muslim voters demand a stronger voice, and this pushed them toward AIMIM. Yadav leaders also face growing pressure due to the image of caste and family-based politics. This rift in votes will trouble RJD, and it may also alert Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh.

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According to Today’s Chanakya, the NDA may get 23% of Yadav votes, while the Grand Alliance may secure 67%. This change is important because Yadav voters have always played a major role in Bihar elections. Muslim voters continue to back the Grand Alliance with 69% support, while the NDA may get 12%.

Other caste groups also show clear trends. About 58% of Dalit (SC) voters support the NDA. Among Brahmin, Bania, and Rajput voters, nearly 63% favour the NDA. OBC and EBC communities also lean toward the NDA, showing a 55% preference.

The BJP’s strategy of promoting leaders like Mohan Yadav and holding continuous rallies appears to be working. If these exit poll figures turn accurate, Bihar may witness a major political shift this election.

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