The world sits at a crucial point in the clean energy transition. Rapid advances in technology now make emission cuts cheaper and faster. However, US President Donald Trump is rolling back policies supporting decarbonisation in the world’s second-largest emitter.
BloombergNEF and global economic modelling show what happens if the US steps back. If other nations continue with clean energy goals, the US economy gains in the short term. By 2050, US GDP rises 0.8% due to cheaper fossil fuels and increased energy exports. Global fossil-fuel use increases by almost 9%. Solar and wind decline slightly, and global emissions rise about 10%. Poorer countries face the worst effects of rising heat.
The situation worsens if other major economies follow the US example. If nations abandon transition plans, emissions surge 75% above BloombergNEF’s core scenario. By 2050, heat-driven costs push global GDP losses up by about 1%. Vietnam, sub-Saharan Africa and India lose the most. The US and China also face economic damage.
Experts describe the situation as a classic tragedy of the commons. Individual gains encourage short-term self-interest. Cooperation offers better long-term outcomes, but requires political commitment.
Progress depends on innovation, electrification and policies that make clean energy competitive. Without collective action, countries risk escalating climate damage and higher long-term costs.
