Former IMF official Gita Gopinath warned that India could face a major economic challenge if global crude oil prices rise to $140 per barrel. She said the ongoing West Asia conflict may increase fuel prices, inflation, and pressure on the Indian rupee. The Oil at $140 warning has raised concerns about India’s import costs and economic growth.
Gopinath explained that India depends heavily on oil imports from the Middle East. Supply disruptions may affect not only crude oil but also LPG, LNG, and fertilizers. She added that shortages could become a bigger issue than rising prices. The Oil at $140 scenario may also weaken the rupee close to 100 against the US dollar.
She advised policymakers to focus on inflation control, jobs, and support for vulnerable families instead of aggressively defending the rupee. However, she said India still has strong domestic demand and healthy forex reserves, so there is no need to panic.
